Bupu, Yohana Awa (2024) Peramalan Angka Kelahiran Di Kota Malang Menggunakan Metode Single Exponetial Smoothing Dan Double ExponentiaL Smoothing. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

The birth rate is a cruacial factor influencing the population growth of a country. This growth is influenced by technologies that facilitate childbirth, which if not balanced with effective control measures, can lead to population density issues. Despite advancements in medical technology reducing mortality rates, high birth rate in Malang City using Single exponential Smoothing (SES) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods. Historical data is utilized to train forecasting models, expected to provide usefull pe vatterns for predicting fiture births. The forecasting results indicate that SES outperforms DES, yielding lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for all types of births (live Births, Stilllbirths and Low Birth Weight). These findings suggest that SES provides more accurate estimates for the birth rate in Malang City. Using the SES model, it is predicted that the birth rate ini Malang City will fluctuate over the next five years, showing significant variations from year to year. This prediction is expected to assist goverments and relevant agencies in planning policies and programs to manage sustainable population growth

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