Fernanda, Moh. (2024) Sistem Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Daging Ayam Pedaging di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2024 Mengunakan Metode Double Exponensial Smoothing Berbasis PHP Dan MYSQL. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

Purebred chicken meat is a type of animal protein that is affordable and easy to obtain. Demand for purebred chickens is expected to continue to increase. This research aims to evaluate the most suitable production forecasting method, so that it can be used as a basis for policies that support food security. Therefore, a forecasting system is needed that can predict chicken meat production, especially in East Java, for the coming period. Researchers use the Double Exponential Smoothing Method in their research. The data used comes from an analysis of broiler chicken production in East Java obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), covering the period 2000 to 2023. The Double Exponential Smoothing method is a technique that applies double smoothing values to previous data to predict actual data. After carrying out several stages of calculations based on the data that has been obtained, the system predicts that broiler chicken production in East Java in 2024 will be 594,304.58 tons with the smallest MAPE of 5.86 % using alpha 0.5. With these results, users get additional information on broiler meat production in the coming period, and can be used as a website to support decision makers

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