Sari, Zahrah Ambar (2024) Peramalan Double Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing Jumlah Penumpang di Stasiun Kotabaru Malang. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

Forecasting is essential using historical data to predict future outcomes. This research focuses on public transportation, a service designed to transport people or goods between places with predetermined schedules and routes. This study specifically seeks to forecast the number of monthly train passengers at Kotabaru Station, Malang. This study evaluates the accuracy of the prediction by performing error analysis using Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study can predict the number of train passengers at
Kotabaru Station, Malang with the calculation of Double Moving Average because it has been proven to be more effective than the calculation of Double Exponential Smoothing based on the calculation of Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error tests. With MSE 832672151, a lower error value is obtained with the lowest MAPE value of 13%, and the forecasting result is 177565

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