Pratiti, Laksmi (2024) Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Tingkat Penghunian Kamar (TPK) Hotel Berbintang Kota Malang. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

Uncertainty in hotel occupancy rates in Malang City can influence investors' decisions in the hotel industry in that city. Therefore, forecasting is needed to determine how many rooms must be provided to meet the estimated demand. Without forecasting, it can result in wasting resources by having too many or too few rooms available. This research aims to predict the occupancy rate of star hotel rooms in Malang City based on the official BPS website. Forecasting the occupancy rate of star hotel rooms can determine the development of the national economy.
This research was conducted to find the best method for the method that will be used. This research will use the Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing methods. The results of this research will play a role in increasing knowledge in the field of forecasting hotel room occupancy rates, which will become the basis for further research. The comparison results obtained are that Double Exponential Smoothing produces more accurate forecasting compared to Single Exponential Smoothing. This is because the forecast results using the Double Exponential Smoothing method have a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. By using the values α = 0.061 and β = 1, a forecast of 6214.26 and a MAPE of 10% are obtained

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