Putra, David Abyantara Sadana (2023) Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Dekomposisi sebagai Prediksi Permintaan Labu Darah. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

This research is motivated by the erratic demand for blood gourd every monthat PMI Malang City. The need for blood gourd comes from various factors such astraffic accidents, the needs of patients in operating rooms, delivery rooms, internalmedicine treatment and various other hospital health service sectors. The averagedemand for blood pumpkins every month in the period 2020 to 2022 is 5322 blood pumpkins.
This study uses a quantitative approach based on statistical data information.The existing data comes from the Administrative Administration section of PMIMalang City. Which will later be processed using 3 methods, namely SingleExponential Smoothing, Additive Decomposition, and Multiprative Decomposition.By calculating the level of accurate predictions using ME (Mean Error), MAE(Mean Absolute Error), and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error).
The results of the study show that there is a percentage difference in the levelof prediction accuracy seen from the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)value. The Single Exponential Smoothing method has a MAPE value of 7.75%.Furthermore, Additive Decomposition with a MAPE value of 12.9%. And finally,the Multiply Decomposition has a MAPE value of 8.3%. So it can be seen that theuse of the Single Exponential Smoothing method is the most accurate method forpredicting the level of demand for blood gourds at PMI Malang City.

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