Subkhi, Yuli Ana (2023) Analisis Forecasting Penjualan Bulanan Pada Toko Sidorahayu Menggunakan Metode Smoothing. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

The single exponential smoothing method is one of the methods used in time series analysis to predict future data based on historical data. This method is suitable for use
if the observed data has a constant trend and does not have a clear seasonal pattern. The purpose of using the single exponential smoothing method in this study aims to provide forecast results for the coming season. Along with the ups and downs of monthly sales data at the Sidorahayu Store, a certain forecasting method is needed. The purpose of this study is to make monthly sales forecasting by applying the single exponential smoothing method at the Sidorahayu Store. Based on the data from forecasting or forecasting that has been done, the analysis of errors in the form of mean
squared error (MSE) is obtained, namely for the category of kitchen equipment products of 30.233354, various plastics of 167.8725453 and household appliances of 34.20281754. The mean absolute percentage error values were also obtained, namely kitchen equipment products by 14%, various plastics by 16% and household appliances by 14%. The forecasting is considered good because the mean percentage error (MAPE) obtained is below 20%

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