Alfianty, Dhita Alifia (2022) Peramalan Rata-Rata Harga Beras Kualitas Premium Di Tingkat Penggilingan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. Undergraduate thesis, Faklutas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

Rice is the staple food of Indonesian society. Hence, rice is one of the most important part to maintain food security in Indonesia. It is important to pay attention to the increase and decrease in the price of rice every month, to maintain
the price stability, so that it does not become a burden on society. The goal of this research is to find the best model to calculate the forecast of the average price of premium quality rice at grinding level. The data used is the average rice price from January 2018 to February 2022, sourced from BPS (Badan Pusat Statistika). The data is then calculated for the autocorrelation function test, so that it is known that
the data has a trend data pattern and is suitable for using the double exponential smoothing method (holt’s linear method). There are two parameters used, namely alpha (α) and beta (β). The forecast calculation is done by using Microsoft Excel.
The best calculation model obtained by the help of Solver feature, obtained of 1 and of 0,02028 so that the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 1,00097% is obtained. The result of this research is in the form of the average premium quality price of rice forecast in the grinding level from March to December 2022

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