Goli, Kornelius Putra (2023) Perbandingan Metode Dekomposisi Aditif Klasik Dan Metode Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Jumlah Pembeli Ayam Pedaging Pada Usaha Penjualan Ayam Maxmilian. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

This research was carried out with the aim of finding out how to compare the use of the classic additive decomposition method and Holt Winters exponential smoothing and to find out how accurate the results of the comparison are for forecasting the number of buyers at the Maxmilian chicken sales business in 2022 to 2023 so that the manager can prepare the amount of chicken stock according to predictions number of buyers. The method used for forecasting the number of buyers is the classical additive decomposition method and Holt Winters exponential smoothing with the values of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as reference values for the accuracy of forecasting model errors. Based on the results of the comparative analysis, it was found that the best method between the two methods was Holt Winters exponential smoothing with a MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) accuracy error of less than 10%, namely 6.81. with forecast results for the period 2022-2023 namely in January 790.15, February 884.06, March 902.5, April 855.63, May 792.82, June 804.41, July 859.58, August 861.18, September 788.77, October 762.74, November 957.72 and December 1030.32.

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