Agrippina, Annisya Parera (2024) Komparasi Peramalan Penerimaan Siswa Baru Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

Education is a systematic and structured process of alignment for individuals to acquire adequate abilities, good moral values, critical thinking, insights, and proficient soft skills. It is often perceived as everything taught by adults to those considered not yet mature. Improving the quality of education must be carried out to prepare them for the future in line with the targets and applicable systems, and it must be balanced with quality and quantity standards in making appropriate policy decisions. Each institution faces various issues in admitting new students, such as high demand but insufficient capacity and facilities, or minimal demand but ample capacity and facilities. To address these issues and achieve alignment with the needs of educational institutions, planning and analysis are required to make decisions, such as utilizing Exponential Smoothing techniques to predict the values of potential new students. This research aims to understand and evaluate the use of Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing methods in predicting the quantity of potential new students. This research employs a quantitative method, and data collection is conducted through surveys. The data collected spans from the years 2012 to 2023. The criterion used to determine the appropriate method is based on the error value; if the error value produced is the smallest from the Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing methods, then that value is considered the best. The total sample obtained in this study is 317. Based on the test results and data analysis using Exponential Smoothing methods, it is shown that the forecast for potential new students at SD Negeri 5 Dampit in 2024 that yields the smallest error value is the Double Exponential Smoothing method. From calculations using the Double Exponential Smoothing method, 20 students are forecasted with α = 1 and β = 0.525806, with a MAPE value of 39% categorized as acceptable. This forecast functionally assists SD Negeri 5 Dampit in preparing potential new students according to adequate facilities while maintaining the quality and quantity of education in line with applicable policies.

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