Manehat, Aurelia (2024) Analisa Perbandingan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Dan Metode Double Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Kabupaten Belu. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

Preview	Text HALAMAN AWAL.pdf Download (977kB) | Preview
Preview	Text BAB I.pdf Download (828kB) | Preview
	Text BAB II.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (896kB)
	Text BAB III.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (600kB)
	Text BAB IV.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (1MB)
	Text BAB V.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (591kB)
Preview	Text DAFTAR PUSTAKA.pdf Download (712kB) | Preview
Preview	Text HASIL CEK PLAGIASI.pdf Download (248kB) | Preview

Abstract

Thisresearch hasthe main objective of predicting the number of poor people in Belu Regency using two quantitative forecasting techniques, namely Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Double Moving Average (DMA). Thisresearch uses secondary data from BPS Belu Regency. Annual data on the numberof poor people in Belu Regency from 2005 to 2023 will be analyzed in thisresearch.The stepsin this research are formulating the problem, collecting data, analyzing data, and drawing conclusions. The technique for calculating the results of this research uses Microsoft Excel software. The results of this research produce the best parameters and orders for each method. The Double Exponential Smoothing method with parameters 0.9, shows aMAPE value of 1.93%. Meanwhile, the Double Moving Average Order 3x3 methodproduces a MAPE value of 9.09%. By comparing the two methods, this research found that Double Exponential Smoothing provides more accurate forecasting results than Double Moving Average for forecasting the number of poor people. While the Double Moving Average method in terms of Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Square Error (MSE), the Double Moving Average method shows better stability in terms of absolute smoothing. So it is hoped that the results ofthisforecast can become a reference for local governments in formulating more effective policies and strategies for poverty alleviation in Belu Regency.

Actions (login required)

View Item