Kristian, Dominikus Edo (2024) Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Double Exponential Smoothing Untuk Prediksi Rata-Rata Harga Beras Premium Nasional di Tingkat Penggilingan. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

Rice is one of the main food commodities consumed by most people in Indonesia. In fulfilling the community's need for rice, many obstacles are encountered so that these needs cannot be met. These constraints include climate change, increased demand, and price fluctuations. With these obstacles, it is necessary to take action to overcome them such as forecasting changes in rice prices. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the prediction of national premium rice prices at the milling level. This research was conducted using a quantitative approach by comparing two forecasting methods such as the Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing. Thus, one of the more accurate methods in forecasting the price of premium rice can be found. To determine the level of accuracy of each forecasting method, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value is calculated. The results of this research is the MAPE value of the Single Exponential Smoothing method is smaller than Double Exponential Smoothing. The alpha parameter value used is 0.9 and produces the smallest MAPE value of 1.62%. From the calculation results with the Single Exponential Smoothing method, the price of premium rice from July to December 2024 tends to decrease but not significantly.

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