Pramono, Dwi (2024) Perbandingan Metode Double Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing Dalam Menganalisis Peramalan Penduduk Miskin di Kabupaten Malang. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi Universitas Merdeka Malang.

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Abstract

Populace neediness assumes a significant part in the financial development of a nation or locale which likewise influences different parts of life. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) says that Malang Regency is the part of East Java with the most poor people. This examination is pointed toward anticipating the quantity of needy individuals in Malang Rule in the period 2024 to 2026, as well as contrasting 2 estimating techniques, in particular Twofold Moving Normal and Twofold Remarkable Smoothing by changing the boundaries that apply to every strategy to get the best guaging results for the quantity of destitute individuals. The information utilized in this examination is 20 information on the quantity of destitute individuals in Malang Rule from 2004 to 2023. In light of the tests and examination that have been done, it was tracked down that the Twofold Outstanding Smoothing strategy with boundaries α = 0.9 and β = 0.1 is more fitting and better to use for anticipated destitute individuals with a MAPE worth of 4.732%. From 2024 to 2026, the results of using the Double Exponential Smoothing method to forecast the population were 24552.1 thousand, 23993.7 thousand, and 23435.3 thousand, respectively.

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